What’s next for coca?

On October 20, the Expert Committee on Drug Dependence (ECDD) held a public session, where they presented their draft report on the coca leaf. Fifty-seven countries participated, 27 written contributions submitted, and 15 experts spoke, including representatives from Dejusticia, Alianza Coca para la Paz, and indigenous authorities from Toribío, Cauca. Following this hearing, the ECDD will issue recommendations, at which point the process will shift from being technical to political.

These recommendations, which will likely be announced in December, will be given to the Commission on Narcotic Drugs (CND) in Vienna, the political body of the international control system, made up of 53 countries. The CND will be responsible for voting for or against the recommendation, if one is issued. We briefly outline the possible scenarios for the coca leaf, depending on the type of recommendation issued by the ECDD. 

Before addressing the scenarios, it is necessary to understand the concept of schedules within the international control system. Schedules are a mechanism of drug conventions to control and regulate the production, trade, distribution, and use of certain psychoactive substances or compounds used to prepare such substances. The 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs established a system with four schedules. Lists I and IV contain drugs with a high potential for abuse and little or no scientific use; coca leaf is on List I. In contrast, Lists II and III contain substances that have a lower risk of abuse and greater medical uses. In practice, the difference between Schedule I and Schedule II is that the latter allows substances to have some medical use under less strict controls than Schedule I, but always with the understanding that they remain controlled substances. Two painkillers illustrate this point: morphine is listed in Schedule I, while codeine is listed in Schedule II. The medical use of morphine requires a strict prescription, while the use of codeine is controlled, but this substance can be found in certain cough syrups.

Now let’s look at the scenarios that could unfold for the coca leaf based on the recommendations that the ECDD may or may not issue. We will also assess the viability of each scenario, based on the political landscape and the content of the report, and analyze the consequences for coca control and the symbolic and political significance of each scenario for international prohibition.

The first possible scenario is the reclassification of the coca leaf. Under this assumption, the ECDD would recommend that the CND reclassify or move the coca leaf from Schedule I to Schedule II, thus allowing greater medical uses of this plant and admitting more flexible controls. We consider this scenario to be the most likely, based on the evidence included in the report, particularly because it points out that the risk of dependence or fatal events is so low or non-existent that it does not justify the stricter classification. Coca and its derivative products would then have a chance at an international market, which would have the controls inherent to the enforcement system. The reclassification of the coca leaf would mean that it is possible to achieve changes within the prohibition system based on evidence. A light in the darkness that prohibition itself represents. 

The second possible scenario is that the coca leaf would cease to be a controlled substance, that is, it would be declassified. This would represent a window of opportunity to open up the international market for this plant without restrictions or controls beyond those applied to any other agricultural product. A market not only for medical and scientific uses, but also for alternative uses of this plant. This is perhaps the most unlikely scenario of all, because the report is emphatic in expressing concern about the supposed ease of extracting cocaine from the coca leaf. It should be clarified that any declassification of the coca leaf would in no way affect the rigorous controls applied to the production and trafficking of cocaine, as this substance would continue to be controlled under Schedule I. Declassification would be another crack in the international prohibition system and a mechanism for redressing the persecution and limitations that this system has imposed on a plant that is fundamental to the Andean Amazonian peoples. It would be a recognition and redress of a historical error based on racist prejudices. 

The final scenario would be to keep coca leaf on Schedule I. This scenario, with the strict controls that this schedule entails, is by far the most worrying. The current classification of coca leaf is not only problematic because of the arguments that support it, but also because the strict controls on the uses of this plant limit the ability to generate scientific knowledge. This catastrophic scenario seems unlikely, or at least difficult to justify, as the draft report acknowledges that there is no significant risk of coca leaf consumption leading to dependence. In line with the characteristics of the schedules themselves, it makes no sense for a substance with a low impact on public health to be classified alongside substances that can generate a high degree of dependence. Maintaining the status quo of coca leaf sends a hopeless message about the international drug system. It would prove the skeptics right: the system is impervious to scientific evidence. A tower of Babel destined to collapse due to its own obsolescence. 

Once it is known which of these possible recommendations will be issued by the ECDD, the political process will begin in the CND, along with the campaign that Bolivia and Colombia must carry out to obtain the necessary votes. The outlook is clear: any scenario involving relaxing controls on coca leaf will have great difficulty securing a majority vote in the CND, especially at a time when Colombia, the proponent of the critical review, faces enormous pressure and scrutiny over its historic record of coca cultivation for drug trafficking.

Although the outlook for March 2026 is complex, this critical review process is already undermining the very foundations of prohibition, revealing its racist and colonial biases and calling for drug policy to be based once and for all on evidence rather than fear of the unknown.